#1138 — Investigate residual changes

Repo: Twill-AI/facade State: closed | Status: done Assignee: meliascosta

Created: 2026-03-19 · Updated: 2026-03-19

Description

Residuals Analysis: Jan → Feb 2026

Summary

Total portfolio volume was roughly flat month-over-month (−2.7%, 3.70M), but residuals (AgentNet) dropped −10.4% (34,537) — a 4x larger decline than volume. The root cause is a margin mix shift: merchants that lost volume were predominantly higher-margin, while merchants that gained volume were mid-tier.

Blended effective rate compressed from 101 bps → 93 bps (−8 bps). Same dollars processed, but earned less on every dollar.


What Happened

High-margin merchants that dipped (100–230 bps)

MerchantMarginVolume ChangeResidual Change
TORRO115 bps−96% (7K)−$2,349
PURSUIT MARKETING PARTNER134 bps−34% (312K)−$2,427
VIRTUOSO SOURCING GROUP228 bps−21%−$1,088

Combined, these three lost ~$382K in volume at margins 2–8x above the portfolio average. TORRO alone accounts for ~60% of the total residual decline — it essentially went dormant.

Mid-margin merchants that rose (95–105 bps)

MerchantMarginVolume ChangeResidual Change
ALDOUS & ASSOCIATES95 bps+$197K+$1,162
BRIDGEIT101 bps+$86K+$824
TATEKIRLIN217 bps+44% (+$46K)+$737

These partially recovered volume but at a lower rate per dollar, which is why net residuals still fell.

Low-margin base (Sharis/Cocos, ~25-30 bps)

Essentially flat — stable volume but minimal residual contri

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