#1138 — Investigate residual changes
Repo: Twill-AI/facade State: closed | Status: done Assignee: meliascosta
Created: 2026-03-19 · Updated: 2026-03-19
Description
Residuals Analysis: Jan → Feb 2026
Summary
Total portfolio volume was roughly flat month-over-month (−2.7%, 3.70M), but residuals (AgentNet) dropped −10.4% (34,537) — a 4x larger decline than volume. The root cause is a margin mix shift: merchants that lost volume were predominantly higher-margin, while merchants that gained volume were mid-tier.
Blended effective rate compressed from 101 bps → 93 bps (−8 bps). Same dollars processed, but earned less on every dollar.
What Happened
High-margin merchants that dipped (100–230 bps)
| Merchant | Margin | Volume Change | Residual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TORRO | 115 bps | −96% (7K) | −$2,349 |
| PURSUIT MARKETING PARTNER | 134 bps | −34% (312K) | −$2,427 |
| VIRTUOSO SOURCING GROUP | 228 bps | −21% | −$1,088 |
Combined, these three lost ~$382K in volume at margins 2–8x above the portfolio average. TORRO alone accounts for ~60% of the total residual decline — it essentially went dormant.
Mid-margin merchants that rose (95–105 bps)
| Merchant | Margin | Volume Change | Residual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALDOUS & ASSOCIATES | 95 bps | +$197K | +$1,162 |
| BRIDGEIT | 101 bps | +$86K | +$824 |
| TATEKIRLIN | 217 bps | +44% (+$46K) | +$737 |
These partially recovered volume but at a lower rate per dollar, which is why net residuals still fell.
Low-margin base (Sharis/Cocos, ~25-30 bps)
Essentially flat — stable volume but minimal residual contri
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